Will higher prices attract more sellers to recovering Phoenix market?

January 10, 2013

The Phoenix real estate market has seen prices rise at a dramatic pace over the past year, but what’s next? Mike Orr, director of the of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business, says the market is in a very interesting phase right now, and it’s not so easy to say what will happen in the next few months. Here he is, discussing the November numbers.

Summary from the Greater Phoenix Housing Market Report, November 2012

• Single family home prices rose sharply between October and November and show very large
increases since November 2011:
   o The median sales price is up 35.4% from $120,000 to $162,500
   o Average price per square foot is up 27.4% from $81.92 to $104.34

• Townhouse/condo prices also moved higher between October and November 2012 and are
showing substantial increases over November 2011:
   o The median sales price is up 42.9% from $70,000 to $100,000
   o Average price per square foot is up much less - 20.3% from $87.20 to $104.87

• Overall supply (excluding homes already under contract) was down 7% at the start of December
2012 compared with December 2011, and distressed supply was down 43% over the same time
frame. However overall supply increased by 31% between September and December.

• Foreclosure starts on single family and condo homes fell by 17% between October and
November 2012 and were down 48% from November 2011

• Recorded trustee deeds (completed foreclosures) on single family and condo homes fell 17%
between October and November 2012, and were down 34% from November 2011.

• With bidders still very active at trustee auctions, 44% fewer single family homes reverted to
lenders at trustee sales compared with November 2011.

• Sales of single family homes were 1% lower than in November 2011.

• The percentage of residential properties purchased by investors remains high at 27.5% but is
now in a clear downward trend having peaked at 35.3% in August.

• Single family home sales increased dramatically year on year for the most expensive sectors:
   o New homes (up 32%)
   o Normal re-sales (up 84%)

• Single family home sales reduced year on year for homes sold at discounts to full market value:
   o Investor flips (down 10%)
   o Short sales and pre-foreclosures (down 22%)
   o Bank owned homes (down 53%)
   o GSE (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc.) owned homes (down 67%)
   o HUD sales (down 50%)
   o Third party purchases at trustee sale (down 23%)

Unless otherwise stated all the statistics shown are for Maricopa and Pinal Counties combined.